The Primetime Emmy Awards will be given out this Sunday night on ABC. After careful consideration here are my picks for what I think will win and what should win. I anticipate live blogging the affair on Sunday, but wanted to get my official picks out well in advance of the event.
Some framing thoughts:
- I'll try not to bitch too much about what wasn't nominated, but some things still stick in my craw.
- I'm gonna ignore the writing & directing categories, but expect Parks & Rec, Louie, Mad Men and Breaking Bad to win there in the comedy and drama categories respectively.
- The Academy voters are old. They like to honor either people they know from movies (Kathy Bates) or people that have won in the past (Michael C. Hall). They can be affected by buzz (many Girls nominations) by prefer things that remind them of the good old days of television (many, many, many nominations for Downton Abbey).
COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory" (CBS)
"Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO)--SHOULD WIN
"Girls" (HBO)
"Modern Family" (ABC)--WILL WIN
"30 Rock" (NBC)
"Veep" (HBO)
There's no reason to think Modern Family won't win. Girls is too edgy and divisive; Veep is too caustic; 30 Rock's time has come and gone. Big Bang Theory and Curb have a shot to dethrone the two time champ, but I fear Modern Family is unstoppable. I choose Curb, because of Palestinian chicken and Susie riding in a car and because I couldn't choose Louie, Parks & Rec or Happy Endings.
COMEDY ACTOR
Jim Parsons as Sheldon Cooper in "The Big Bang Theory"--WILL WIN
Larry David as Himself in "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
Don Cheadle as Marty Kaan in "House of Lies"
Louis C.K. as Louie in "Louie"--SHOULD WIN
Alec Baldwin as Jack Donaghy in "30 Rock"
Jon Cryer as Alan Harper in "Two and a Half Men"
Parsons will win his third award though Baldwin could sneak in. I don't see the Academy awarding someone playing a version of themselves, but I chose Louis CK because his is the most honest performance out of the bunch.
COMEDY ACTRESS
Lena Dunham as Hannah Horvath in "Girls"
Melissa McCarthy as Molly Flynn in "Mike & Molly"
Zooey Deschanel as Jess Day in "New Girl"
Edie Falco as Jackie Peyton in "Nurse Jackie"
Amy Poehler as Leslie Knope in "Parks and Recreation"--SHOULD WIN
Tina Fey as Liz Lemon in "30 Rock"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus as Selina Meyer in "Veep"--WILL WIN
Louis-Dreyfus is a genuine TV star and so very good here. I almost picked her, as well, but I am still moved by Leslie getting to vote for herself and the panorama of emotions she displayed as Ann told her the results of the election. Those moments overshadowed any of the slower spots of last season.
SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTOR
Ed O'Neill as Jay Pritchett in "Modern Family"--WILL WIN
Jesse Tyler Ferguson as Mitchell Pritchett in "Modern Family"
Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy in "Modern Family"
Eric Stonestreet as Cameron Tucker in "Modern Family"
Max Greenfield as Schmidt in "New Girl"--SHOULD WIN
Bill Hader as various characters in "Saturday Night Live"
I'm okay with an O'Neill win here. His dancing in the recital with Lily is one of the best Modern Family moments of last season. I am partial to Greenfield simply because Schmidt hit early and hit hard.
SUPPORTING COMEDY ACTRESS
Mayim Bialik as Amy Farrah Fowler in "The Big Bang Theory"--WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN
Kathryn Joosten as Karen McCluskey in "Desperate Housewives"
Julie Bowen as Claire Dunphy in "Modern Family"
Sofia Vergara as Gloria Delgado-Pritchett in "Modern Family"
Merritt Wever as Zoey Barkow in "Nurse Jackie"
Kristen Wiig as various characters in "Saturday Night Live"
Mayim Bailik (and especially the unacknowledged Melissa Rauch) saved the popular CBS series 18 months ago. Bailik however was given the best material of any of the women on this list, and she played the hell out of it. She was always funny and always in the moment.
DRAMA SERIES
"Boardwalk Empire" (HBO)
"Breaking Bad" (AMC)--SHOULD WIN
"Downton Abbey" (PBS)--WILL WIN
"Game of Thrones" (HBO)
"Homeland" (Showtime)
"Mad Men" (AMC)
I think lots of voters will want to have Breaking Bad win, especially when you consider it is the excellent fourth season featuring the removal of Gus Fring that is nominated. But it's up against Downton Abbey and the voters nominated everyone they could nominate from this series. Even though the second season is subpar it will clean up at least in this category.
DRAMA ACTRESS
Glenn Close as Patty Hewes in "Damages"
Michelle Dockery as Lady Mary Crawley in "Downton Abbey"
Julianna Margulies as Alicia Florrick in "The Good Wife"
Kathy Bates as Harriet Korn in "Harry's Law"
Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison in "Homeland"--WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN
Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olson in "Mad Men"
If there's one bit of concensus everywhere it is that Claire Danes is absolutely terrific in Homeland. If there's a spoiler here, it has be Michelle Dockery, because people love the Downton Abbey.
DRAMA ACTOR
Steve Buscemi as Nucky Thompson in "Boardwalk Empire"
Bryan Cranston as Walter White in "Breaking Bad"--WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN
Michael C. Hall as Dexter Morgan in "Dexter"
Hugh Bonneville as Robert, Earl of Grantham in "Downton Abbey"
Damian Lewis as Nicholas Brody in "Homeland"
Jon Hamm as Don Draper in "Mad Men"
I can't imagine a world where Bryan Cranston doesn't win for Walter White each time he's nominated, though I may be saying something else next year. If there's a spoiler here, it has to be Jon Hamm, because he has to win sometime.
SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTRESS
Anna Gunn as Skyler White in "Breaking Bad"
Maggie Smith as Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham in "Downton Abbey"--WILL WIN
Joanne Froggatt as Anna in "Downton Abbey"
Archie Panjabi as Kalinda Sharma in "The Good Wife"
Christine Baranski as Diane Lockhart in "The Good Wife"
Christina Hendricks as Joan Holloway Harris in "Mad Men"--SHOULD WIN
I can't imagine Maggie Smith not winning, even people who have never seen the show understand her role and its significance. Hendricks should win because the episode where she prostituted herself for the company was a harrowing and powerful piece of work.
SUPPORTING DRAMA ACTOR
Aaron Paul as Jesse Pinkman in "Breaking Bad"--SHOULD WIN
Giancarlo Esposito as Gustavo 'Gus' Fring in "Breaking Bad"
Brendan Coyle as John Bates in "Downton Abbey"
Jim Carter as Mr. Carson in "Downton Abbey"
Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister in "Game of Thrones"
Jared Harris as Lane Pryce "Mad Men"--WILL WIN
I think the love for Mad Men will be shown here and also in a win for best writing. Harris was always so good as the doomed Lane, so I won't be disappointed. Paul, though, is always aces and his work as his girlfriend's son lay dying in a hospital room was palpable and urgent. He is often the emotional anchor on that brilliant series.
MINISERIES OR TV MOVIE
"American Horror Story" (FX)
"Game Change" (HBO)
"Hatfields & McCoys" (History)--WILL WIN
"Hemingway & Gellhorn" (HBO)
"Luther" (BBC America)
"Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia" (PBS)--SHOULD WIN
Once upon a time this was a thriving category, but over the last decade it has merely become a way for HBO to add to its total Emmy haul. As recent as last year, the Academy started playing fast and loose with the category; it allowed an obvious ongoing series, Downton Abbey, into the category, and the members voted that series the winner. Cut to this year, where there are two movies (Hemingway & Gellhorn and Game Change), one miniseries (Hatfields & McCoys), and three ongoing series masquerading as other forms. American Horror Story, which is ready to start a second season, entered as a miniseries. As did Luther, which just finished its second season. Sherlock submitted a single episode from its second season as a movie. I think the Academy will want to honor and honest to goodness miniseries that was insanely popular (Hatfields & McCoys), but I prefer Sherlock to most other things in any genre.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
Connie Britton as Vivien Harmon in "American Horror Story"--SHOULD WIN
Julianne Moore as Sarah Palin in "Game Change"--WILL WIN
Nicole Kidman as Martha Gellhorn in "Hemingway & Gellhorn"
Ashley Judd as Rebecca Winstone in "Missing"
Emma Thompson as She in "The Song of Lunch"
People love the Julianne Moore, and many found her performance the best part of a tepid version of a great book. I would agree, but I would never vote against Britton. She made the ludicrous real and grounded in American Horror Story.
LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
Woody Harrelson as Steve Schmidt in "Game Change"
Kevin Costner as 'Devil' Anse Hatfield in "Hatfields & McCoys"--WILL WIN
Bill Paxton as Randall McCoy in "Hatfields & McCoys"
Clive Owen as Ernest Hemingway in "Hemingway & Gellhorn"
Idris Elba as John Luther in "Luther"
Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes in "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia"--SHOULD WIN
I think Kevin Costner is the biggest movie star of this list in the minds of an aging Academy. I however think Benedict Cumberbatch has not only the coolest name in television, but one of the best performances.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
Frances Conroy as Moira in "American Horror Story"
Jessica Lange as Constance Langdon in "American Horror Story"--WILL WIN & SHOULD WIN
Sarah Paulson as Nicolle Wallace "Game Change"
Mare Winningham as Sally McCoy in "Hatfields & McCoys"
Judy Davis as Jill Tankard in "Page Eight"
If you saw one episode of American Horror Story, and probably even if you didn't, then you know that there is no stopping the Jessica Lange train, nor should there be.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
Denis O'Hare as Larry Harvey in "American Horror Story"
Ed Harris as John McCain in "Game Change"--WILL WIN
Tom Berenger as Jim Vance in "Hatfields & McCoys"
David Strathairn as John Dos Passos in "Hemingway & Gellhorn"
Martin Freeman as Dr. John Watson in "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia"--SHOULD WIN
I picked Freeman because I love the Sherlock. I think voters will pick Harris because he's the biggest star.
VARIETY SERIES
"The Colbert Report" (Comedy Central)--SHOULD WIN
"The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" (Comedy Central)--WILL WIN
"Jimmy Kimmel Live" (ABC)
"Late Night With Jimmy Fallon" (NBC)j
"Real Time With Bill Maher" (HBO)
"Saturday Night Live" (NBC)
The Colbert Report should win if only because of the stellar series about Super PAC's, but The Daily Show will win, because it's The Daily Show, and that's okay.
REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
"The Amazing Race" (CBS)
"Dancing With the Stars" (ABC)
"Project Runway" (Lifetime)
"So You Think You Can Dance" (Fox)
"Top Chef" (Bravo)--SHOULD WIN
"The Voice" (NBC)--WILL WIN
It was a terrible year for reality competition series, and the only one to be moderatley engaing, Survivor, wasn't even nominated. The Voice will win because of the buzz and the goodwill, and its emphasis on superstar talent behind the judging table has changed the face of singing competitions. I prefer the Top Chef classic out them that's nominated, but I loves my cooking competitions.
HOST FOR A REALITY OR REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
Phil Keoghan, "The Amazing Race"
Ryan Seacrest, "American Idol"
Betty White, "Betty White's Off Their Rockers"
Tom Bergeron, "Dancing With the Stars"--WILL WIN
Cat Deeley, "So You Think You Can Dance"--SHOULD WIN
Betty White?!? Deeley is great, and so is Bergeron, but I like looking at and listening to her more.
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