When the recall drive started, I honestly thought the Democrats would take at least 4, and possibly all 6 of the contests. I also thought they would win most of them by wide margins. So what happened?
First, let's stipulate that in any two party partisan election, the Republican and Democrat both start off with about 30% of the vote each (this is called "the base."). The remaining 40% are not "moderates;" rather, they are independents for whom campaign rhetoric matters. Winning campaigns are able to secure the base and the majority of independents.
In February and March I thought that the Republicans had been so disrespectful of basic rules of governance that the Democrats in recall elections would not only win the independents but also cut into the Republican base. That didn't happen, even though the Dems ran some excellent candidates. Pundits and Dem operatives will blame the media, or outside spending, or the fact that the elections took place in August, or any number of external factors, but I think at root the problem was ineffective Democratic messaging.
Most voters, especially the independents, believe (correctly) that elected officials should not be recalled simply for taking tough votes. I personally would not vote to recall an elected official just because he or she took a vote I disagreed with.
Unfortunately, the moment Democratic Party advertising started focusing on the fact that the Republicans had voted for massive cuts in school aids, voted for tax cuts for the rich, etc. etc., they allowed the Republican candidates to assume a victim pose: "I am being punished for taking tough votes." The independent voters, I am convinced, do not approve of the governor's budgets . . . but neither do they approve of removing an official from office simply for voting for those budgets.
An independent voter WILL vote to recall, in my judgement, when it can be shown that the elected representative did not meet his or her responsibility to REPRESENT constituents. A representative refusing to represent is most certainly exercising misconduct in office. This is especially true for state and federal elected officials, who are confronted with legislation that is often the product of narrow lobbies (e.g. ALEC) whose interests conflict with the representatives' constituents.
To represent does not mean to poll constituents and always vote the majority's wishes. But it does mean to listen genuinely to all sides, to be responsive to requests for information, to be willing to change one's mind when clear and compelling evidence requires it, to advocate for the most transparent government possible, to slow down the deliberative process when it is clear that insufficient debate has taken place, to do whatever is in one's power to prevent a vote on major legislation until sufficient public hearings have been held, and be a role model of respectful communication with all constituents.
The principles outlined in the last paragraph are "small r" republican; they are what we should expect from all elected officials regardless of party affiliation or office held. What Democrats needed to show in these recall elections was that after the election of Scott Walker the Republicans stopped being republican. Instead, the Republicans acted like apparatchiks; rubber stamping the governor's agenda, dividing the state by pitting public employees against the private sector, shutting down debate at the time when debate was most needed, and simply failing to communicate with their constituents.
My view is that every Republican on the ballot yesterday deserved to be recalled because they failed to uphold the basic principles of republicanism. To violate ALL these principles, as the Republicans most certainly did over the last 8 months, is most certainly malfeasance in office. Thus their behavior would fall under the strict recall language of the state of Georgia endorsed by the Oshkosh Northwestern today.
In short, when Democratic advertising started to critique the Republicans for their votes, they took the focus off of the Republicans' heavy handed governing procedures. Those procedures showed open contempt for some pretty basic rules of republicanism, and should be opposed by all civic minded people regardless of party or platform.
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